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Assessment of the Situation in the US and an Essay on Trump’s Grand Strategy
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Assessment of the Situation in the US and an Essay on Trump’s Grand Strategy

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HOUSTON, TEXAS – August 19, 2018

The global economy has reached an “epochal pivot,” a moment when the false prosperity created from the trillions in printed money by the world’s central banks lurches violently into reverse.

The top for the current asset price bubble era is in — specifically, we think it hit its apex in January 2018. As this “Everything Bubble” prepares to burst, Political games in the US are clearly off scale. At the same time, behind the political squabbles, in reality, there is a very concrete problem - the inability to ensure sustainable economic growth (which may be “a steady decline” to use more precise terminology). And for this reason political squabbles cannot stop or even temporarily decrease.

With a strong sense of the history of the last few centuries it becomes clear that the key indicator determining the indicator for disaster in a democratic state is a fall in GDP. If the level of such a fall is less than 40%, then the socio-political structure of the state usually remains intact. This is clearly a crisis, but not yet a catastrophic one. A classic example is the US crisis of 1930-1932 and the crisis Russia experienced in the 90s. In both cases, the fall in GDP was about 35%, and although both countries came to a critical point, they managed to get out without collapsing entirely.

But today the situation is different. Before, I mean in 1930, the gap between the real disposable incomes and final consumption expenditures of the population in the United States was about 15%, and today — it is substantially more, about 25%. And this means that the fall in GDP, all other things being equal, should be about 35/15 * 25, that is, it turns out, almost 60 percent. Of course this is a very approximate figure, but fundamentally it is correct. In reality such a primitive assessment needs various kinds of additions and refinements. First of all, it should be noted that this is an estimate of real GDP made by models from at least the 70s. All modern "things" such as "attributable rent," "hedonistic indices" or evaluation of "intellectual property" should be ignored. For this reason, the nominal drop in GDP in the US will be much larger, about 55-60, but from the point of view of catastrophic consequences it doesn’t ultimately matter.

That is, the real magnitude of the economic downturn will be extremely close to the critical one. It is so close that it will not be possible to preserve the socio-political structure without external support. By the way, what does "socio-political" structure mean? This refers to the well-established structure of social strata, the sources of their income, the ratio of political institutions and parties, and so on. Their pulling down leads either to a revolution (that is, to a fundamental change in the political system) or to a rigid dictatorship (a synonym for martial law).

We see that in internal policy, the US is drifting to the civil war. Some experts believe that it could begin in 2020-2021. Every 80 years (a few years, give or take) there is a reset of meanings, principles of management and the strategy in the US (1775-1783, 1861-1865, 1941-1945 and ... 2021-2025.) For three cycles from a penniless colony, the US has converted itself into a world leader. But nowadays it seems to have no new ideas to present and very few resources with which to maintain its leadership

In modern US society almost all elite groups (bureaucracy, the deep state, military, scientific figures, the press, bohemians etc.) have grown and succeed within the outgoing era, and all their influence and assets are connected with the financial sector. They will not be able to maintain their position within the framework of a trans-industrial society. Their assets will be devalued (who needs the derivatives and liabilities of bankrupt companies). The new economy will need people who can do something with their hands (workers,) minds (scientists, engineers) or manage some industries (managers and specialists of industrial and space programs,) but not financial managers and bankers. Thus, in the next 20 years, the US will face the construction of a new economy, society and the acquisition of meaning at the expense of the assets of financiers.... It will be a very tough period not only for the US but for the whole world economic and political system. As a result, a new world economy will appear in which the US will keep its leading position. Thus, in order to make America great again Trump should ensure that during this global transitional period there will not be another hegemon.

As far as we see, there is a clear sequence and logic in the actions of Trump and the elite groups behind him. His foreign and internal policy is stable and for the most part successful. His ultimate goal is expressed honestly and directly - "to make America great again." Can this be achieved without the virtual destruction of the financial sector and its associated liberal ideology? No. Is it possible to take the elite of the past out of power and to use their assets for the development of the country's economy without blood?  No. Is it possible to surrender to the will of evolution and wait until all problems smoothly dissolve during the coming 10, 15, or 20 years? No, the system of power in the US is built in such a way that any mistake can lead to the return of liberals to the first roles which means a rigid dictatorship will be necessary.

Here we come to the question - what is worse, a terrible way to go or a horror without end? So, here I will say something that you may not like, and you can blame me for my words, but try to read it to the end and only then make judgments. It may sound strange but I believe that civil war will be beneficial to the elite behind Tramp and, ultimately, strategically advantageous to America.

For the beginning let’s analyze the situation in Trump’s internal policy.

It seems that Trump's actions are aimed at tightening the existing contradictions within the system - there are practically no attempts at rapprochement or compromise from his side, he is just waiting. There are multiple signs of preparations for an active confrontation. And it’s only a matter of time when and on what occasion the start of a civil war will be allowed or provoked.

Below is just one of scenarios that could provide a casus belli at the selected time.

Step 1. In the autumn of 2018, there is a high probability of provoking or allowing a collapse in the stock market by the US’s political leadership (as happened in 1929, when the Great Depression began).

In response to this collapse, Donald Trump will blame the financial circles behind the Clintons in all respects and will then urgently introduce the time-limited restrictions equivalent to the repealed Glass-Steagall law to fight the crisis. At the same time, the procedure for the return of permanent restrictions through Congress will be launched.

Step 2. There is then a wave of massive bankruptcies of investment banks and financial corporations, many millionaires and billionaires become beggars in a single moment. Supporters of financiers begin to challenge the status quo and demand the lifting of restrictions and additional power. They raise a renewed calls for Trump’s impeachment.

In response, the Trump Administration discloses the results and details of the investigations (though far from everything is cleared up) against individuals in the FBI, CIA and other secret agencies, as well as the leadership of the Democratic Party and the previous Administration regarding their crimes and corruption.

Formal accusations are then made against the elite group members who previously had been beyond the scope of justice, the most odious persons are placed under house arrest. Personally, Clinton is charged with the murder of the former US ambassador to Libya.

Step 3. A wave of multi-million protest demonstrations sweeps through the largest cities, the country on the contrary agrees with everything. Hollywood stars, Silicon Valley’s top managers, and mainstream media personalities are in the first rows.

In response, Trump imposes restrictions on the protection of copyrights, patents, etc., as obstacles to the development of liberal society. This action then leads to the destruction of the financial basis under the "Dream Factory" and Silicon Valley.

The real economic sector continues to work without problems.

Step 4. Some states begin to accept unconstitutional acts aimed at disobeying the White House. A Conservative-controlled Constitutional Court then abolishes all of this, causing even more hysteria. Urban crowds demand "popular impeachment" and are ready to take direct action against the President and his supporters. Hollywood stars, politicians, and media representatives are heading to the protests.

Public trials begin and demands for the death penalty for the Clintons and Co. begin as too much blood and mud is emerging. The backward wave of compromising information about Trump is perceived in the country as little more than children's pranks — the principles of morality and the rule of law of the majority drift ever further from liberal values.

Step 5. Because of the large number of weapons in the hands of the population  victims on both sides begin to appear. The troops begin entering the cities and cause thousands of civilian casualties. Taking hostages and demanding their exchange for "political " prisoners is becoming common practice. Hostage rescue operations are being carried out all over the country. There are many victims on both sides.

Attempts to negotiate fail, the parties are not ready for compromises.

There are repeated attempts to release Clinton and Co. by force, but they fail and lead only to losses on the part of the attackers. The country plunges into total chaos.

Step 6. One of the special agencies is trying to kill Trump. Regardless of the outcome, in response there is an endemic wave of arrests and casualties in the resistance. The States which were controlled by financiers (mostly democratic) introduce martial law and refuse to obey the White House. They organize their own authorities and militias. Parts of the army, navy and deep state agencies are moving to their side.

Negotiations between the two sides are ongoing, but result in nothing.

The financial system is destroyed, all assets of the previous period are depreciated.

Step 7. The military operations begin in an attempt to suppress the rebels. What side is to use tactical nuclear weapons first is not important. As a result, there are several charges from each side. New York and Los Angeles disappear in mushroom clouds.

Step 8. The parties conclude a "convention" on the renunciation of nuclear weapons. The local military actions take another 2-3 years, while most of the real economy continues to work without major problems. The victory goes to the conservatives, as they saved more resources and because a real, working sector of the economy supports them.

The result will be:

-The almost complete destruction of the financial sector and services;

-a drop in the standard of living of the population to the equilibrium level of income;

-loss of parts of U.S. territory (Alaska, Texas);

-a significant part of the losers flee to Canada (in the future, the US will absorb it but for now they cannot because they have no more money).

-The US dumps the weights that had tied down the US economy for many decades and begins a new era- space development, additive technologies, etc.

As strange as it sounds, this is a positive scenario. The others are much worse. But the US cannot begin a cycle of internal reforms without ensuring external security, so that in the next 15-20 years there will be no new hegemon that can prevent the revival of the US.

So, let’s go to the international policy. Let’s see what the generalized Trump can do to provide the security in the future and  how he can to... preserve Israel, the key task of Trump's foreign policy.

The middle East will be a key place in the struggle for the future of the world, just like the last five thousand years. The visible objective will be to ensure the security of Israel.

The real goal will be to prevent the emergence of a rival hegemon until the revival of the US.

Step. 1. The US (the forces behind trump) offers a secret Alliance between Russia, Iran and Israel to divide the Middle East.

The US will receive:

-The weakening of China (its main economic enemy) and Europe (its food base in the coming years,) preventing their mutual strengthening and rapprochement by blocking the Sea Silk Road from China to Europe

-halting the supply of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf to China and Europe and as a consequence of rising energy prices.

-The defense of Israel (a sacred political objective).

Iran:

-gets the entire Persian Gulf (Shia-populated areas,) i.e. all oil and gas fields in the region

-assumes obligation on the lack of hydrocarbon production in the new territories for 10 years

-recognizes Israel as a brotherly country  (Farah came out of Ur, we were always brothers, etc.)

-rebuilt on the principles of Israel - there are Orthodox, they are separated from the state, but they have privileges.

Israel:

-protection for the next 20 years from the Sunni-Arab environment (guarantors are Russia and Iran) and peace with Iran (the old Persian-Jewish history)

-The eviction of all Arabs from their territory - to Arabia and Turkey

-the recognition of the inhabitants of Syria and Lebanon as the descendants of the Samaritans, i. the lost tribes of Israel and the Semitic tribes (a field for -assimilation and carrying through the simplified giyur of the most valuable population)

-recognition of the Alawites by the Jewish sect

-a protectorate over New Khazaria (Odessa and Kherson regions, where the climate will soon be like in Israel - it's a sign from Above), perhaps part of the territories of Northern Cyprus ...

Russia:

-Constantinople, Izmir, North Cyprus

-almost all of China's trade with Europe will go through Russia

-control over the Balkans

-Preservation of a military presence in Syria

-Partial protectorate over Kurdistan.

For each of the parties the conditions are such that, even realizing the risks and consequences, no one can refuse...

Step 2. The beginning of the military conflict.

A plane carrying the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia is shot down. Sinai, a situation which has been calm recently with succession and division of areas of responsibility heats up dramatically. Maybe it is possible not to appeal to this measure but the world crisis has changed everything and the first persons cease to be inviolable.

The Khusites from Northern Yemen cross the border of Saudi Arabia, while the eastern province blazes with rebellion. The Shiites begin mass riots in other countries of the Persian Gulf.

Iran begins  arms transfers to the Shiites and demands ... a lot of beautiful words about freedom, rights, etc.

Step 3. The United States and Israel declare limited assistance to the CA in exchange for the adoption of the last Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and... Jordan Some of these men are then launched into Europe to stop the screaming about human rights.

The guerrilla war of the Shiites is gaining momentum.

Kurds are pumped up with weapons for guerrilla warfare — by Russia (through Syria and Armenia,) Iran and the US.

Turkey strengthens its base in Qatar, opens new bases in the Gulf, and enters into an alliance with Arabia.

Step 4. Pro-Iranian Shiite formations of Iraq cross the border with SA, Kuwait and further along the coast - in order to  help to their co-religionists.

The war of Iraq (+ Iran) and the SA begins (who will win is no longer important). The US declares limited military assistance, blocks the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Aden and... brings to a halt all extraction and processing facilities in the strait to guarantee 10 years of non-production. All their other actions are imitations of stormy activity. They do not conduct any ground operations.

The price of oil and gas soars. Europe, China and Japan are experiencing enormous economic problems, which then turn into social ones.

China probes the opportunity to seize Australia, as an exchange for a complete rejection of foreign policy west of the Strait of Malacca.

Turkey is in a state of land war with the Shiites in the Gulf (attacking bases) and enters troops into the Kurdish part of Iraq. Kurds begin guerrilla war throughout the territory of their residence - the east of Turkey lights up.

Step 5. Saudi Arabia is capitulating. Shrines are transferred to the Hashemite Kingdom (direct descendants of the Prophet), the Eastern Province and the Shiite emirates fall under Iran's protectorate. The economy is destroyed, the straits are blocked, hydrocarbons from the Gulf will not go anywhere for 10 years...

Erdogan is killed in negotiations in Vienna (a single Kurdishman) or is shot down over Kosovo (Kosovars from the old Soviet BUK by mistake), the military is trying to take power into their own hands. NATO countries are declaring their assistance — the US is introducing its troops into Turkey. Gulen triumphantly returns to Turkey and intensifies the mess in a country at war until it is completely absurd.

Turks in Europe organize pogroms, they are joined by Arabs and blacks. In Europe, there is a collapse, which pushes to a transition to National Socialism or vice versa to the loss of control. But from the Middle Eastern theater, Europe is swept away.

 Step 6. Iran, the United States and... Israel conclude a peace agreement — which each side considers a victory. Conditions — see step 1.

A wave of patriotism in the United States exacerbates its own Civil war. US troops leave the region for home — where the fun begins.

Turkey is left alone with Iran, without real support and a crumbling system of governance.

Step 7. Iran recognizes Kurdistan and military actions (Shiites, Kurds against the Turks) are moving to Turkey. Millions of Palestinians and other Arabs from all over the region are being driven to Turkey.

The USA and NATO declare the war “civil” and refuse to participate, but in fact begin to help Kurds and create zones of occupation.

Millions of Turks are fleeing to Europe, the Turkish state is disintegrating. For salvation from hunger prevention caused by the influx of refugees and for her people’s protection, Russia introduces the PMC and some internal forces to Constantinople. The discontented populace is pushed out to the territory of Asian Turkey.

China is not able to help Turkey (transport routes are blocked,) no one else needs it.

Step 8. Parade of sovereignty and referendums on self-determination of individual regions and peoples in Turkey. The Kurds are forced to give up the territory with half of  their water sources, but this is a necessary payment for statehood and a relatively quiet future.

As a result we have a mess for a dozen years across the whole region: ethnic cleansing,  a severe economic crisis, which leads to a dramatic fall in the standard of living of broad segments of the population, blocked transport routes, the collapse of world trade and huge problems in Europe and China.

Is such a scenario is beneficial to Russia? In the medium term — yes it is, in the long term it is not for sure. The US will return to the world stage in 20 years ready for a new breakthrough, while the rest finish playing past stories.

The bottom line is — for the US, Iran and Israel, the scenario is positive, for Russia it is more positive than negative (a new own scenario is needed), for Europe and China-sharply negative.

Conclusion:

Here is just one of the possible scenarios (the victory strategy for the elites behind Trump). For many, this will be a shock. Many may consider this article stupid and will not read it to the end. People, naturally, do not like to listen to what they do not want to hear. It's easier for them to climb under the bed, hide and hope that their problems will dissolve by themselves. But they will not dissolve. Believe me, for the US (as indeed for the whole world) now there are no good scenarios. There is a war between international financial and regional industrial elites. They cannot agree. Someone must disappear. Therefore, the only choice remaining  is whether to save the world financial system at the expense of the US or save the US at the expense of the global financial system. There is no third way. In any case, this contradiction will be resolved through a severe crisis. Only under the scenario described above, in the long run, can America come out of the crisis even stronger than now.

Author: USA Really