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The US Will Cannot Without Migrants Like a Fish Out of Water
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The US Will Cannot Without Migrants Like a Fish Out of Water

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USA – September 30, 2018

The US hardly wants to recognize its failure in immigration policy when new Yale data says that the number of illegal migrants in the States is between 16 million and 30 million, as much as three times more than most demographers had believed.

The professors' model looked at estimates of the number of people came illegally, and how many people probably left, and concluded there are a lot more people residing illegally in the US than the 11 million suggested by the traditional estimate. The model says the most likely figure is twice that of about 22 million.

If true, the numbers would mean U.S. officials have done a poor job of resolving the immigration issue. After all, initially, as it is known, it was assumed that with each new adopted order of President Donald Trump, the number of immigrants would be reduced. And that one out of every nine people living in the U.S. will be expelled from the country.

"Policy debates about the number of resources to devote to this issue, and the merits of alternative policies, including deportation, amnesty, and border control, depend critically on estimates of the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S., which sets the scale of the issue," said the academics, Professors Jonathan S. Feinstein and Edward H. Kaplan and postdoctoral associate Mohammad Fazel-Zarandi, all at the Yale School of Management.

They published their findings in PLOS ONE, an open-access scholarly journal, and sparked fierce pushback from many demographers who study the issue and say the professors’ numbers are impossible.

Now to understand the real number of migrants, you need to understand why they are in the United States in the first place, the problem can never be solved. As is known, migrants are well protected by human rights organizations and business owners.

Not everyone is ready to recognize the availability of migrant problems in American society. Perhaps it is the last that is beneficial to American employers. As you know, US business is interested in cheap labor, therefore it is against deportation. That is why the White House is hiding data on the migration crisis.

"American employers need cheap labor. While Latin American migrants will take any job with any pay and without documents, and illegally, US citizens will demand good conditions and high wages," explained the expert on immigration policy, who wished to remain anonymous.

In addition, in the US there is a great demand for the black business products of Latin Americans.

 "Consider, for example, the situation with drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States. Thousands of Mexicans migrate across the border between countries that are virtually unprotected in search of a better life. For the most part illegal. They go to the United States because there is always a demand for their main product — drugs," said the expert.

How often do we hear from the news that on the border with Mexico again was found a secret hole through which Mexican drugs were coming? And what about smuggling, which has long been engaged in by residents of both countries?

According to the expert, if U.S. authorities don't deal with the migration crisis, American culture will eventually be destroyed.

"The immigration problem threatens Americans with the destruction of cultural foundations. Migrants live in former Mexico territory — in California, and Texas. They live in their communities, which are constantly growing, speak Spanish, fill their historical homeland. Thus, their presence in the US is comparable to the number of African Americans, which means the gradual expulsion of the national American culture," the expert stated.

He believes that Trump will be able to solve the problem, if he fulfills his campaign promises to build a wall on the border with Mexico and tighten the legislation on the illegal sale of drugs and weapons, which will eventually "reduce the demand for the supply of Latin Americans, and it will be unprofitable for them to go to the United States."

But as for the wall on the border with Mexico, this issue, as is known, has long been the concern about various organizations and the White House itself.

The erection of the wall has already begun, Trump said, speaking to Republican activists. The construction of the protective building is a requirement of national security, the head of the White House added.

"Many don't know that we've already begun the construction: we've allocated $1.6 billion and are building large areas of this wall, but we need additional funds," Trump said.

The President is ready to take such "radical measures" to achieve the provision of the missing allocations for the construction. Trump didn't specify what exactly these measures might consist of. However, the day before, July 29th, Trump wrote on his Twitter about the intention to suspend the work of the Federal government if Congress again refuses to support the bill on the protection of national borders. Among other measures, the document assumed the construction of a wall on the border with Mexico.

“I would be willing to “shut down” government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall! Must get rid of Lottery, Catch & Release etc. and finally go to system of Immigration based on MERIT! We need great people coming into our Country!” Trump tweeted.

According to experts, Trump focuses on the wall largely for populist reasons. As is known, George Bush Jr. first began to build a wall on the border with Mexico. The length of the building is 1000 km, there are still areas with difficult terrain, where the construction will be very expensive.

It is possible that American congressmen are guided by similar arguments, since the bill on the protection of national borders was rejected by the lower house of Parliament on July 27th. 301 congressmen voted against the erection, and only 121 supported. For a bill to be passed, it must receive 218 votes. The document proposed to consolidate a number of initiatives of Donald Trump in the migration sphere: to cancel the visa lottery and allocate $25 billion for the construction of the wall on the Mexican border. The bill also included the claims of the opponents of the trump, such as the prohibition of separation of children of illegal immigrants with their parents after their arrest.

In particular, the Democrats believe that the building of the wall on the southern border will result in exorbitant costs. In April, Democratic senators from the National Security Committee estimated that the White house project will cost about $66.9 billion.

"Thus, every man, woman and child in the US will pay more than $200 for the wall building," said a report distributed by the senators.

In addition, every year about $150 million will be required to service the wall, according to the Democratic party. The arguments of the Democrats are also shared by many Republicans.

Thus, political life and the issue of the wall, including the upcoming congressional elections, is in 'standby'. In such a situation, as a rule, no one takes drastic measures with controversial bills.

And while the White House can use only $1.6 billion to strengthen border control with Mexico, this amount of funding was included in the budget for 2018.

Meanwhile, separation from Mexico by the wall was one of Donald Trump's campaign promises. In general, Trump has repeatedly talked about plans to introduce tough measures against illegal migration in case of his victory.

During the election campaign, Trump called himself 'the greatest Builder' who will build the biggest wall in history.

"And you know who will pay for it? Mexico," Trump added.

The business stands on the migrants' protection

Although official data say that the unregulated influx of labor migrants can have a negative impact on the economy, business owners fundamentally disagree with this statement.

Migration is driven by the demand for cheap labor from American businesses. For example, Mexican labor migrants perform a significant part of seasonal work: in 2016, the authorities issued 165 741 visas for temporary work in the agricultural sector.

To work in the United States on a legal basis, migrants can use a special government program that says that the country is not against migrants.

If anyone remembers the famous Trump edict on the wall, exactly the next day the head of the most successful American accelerator 'Y Combinator' Sam Altman published in his blog a call to take up arms. Technology companies, he wrote, should oppose immigration restrictions as quickly as possible and start fighting Trump and his isolationist plans together.

The CEOs of Google, Microsoft, and Tesla (all of whom were not born on American soil) made statements against Trump and in support of their foreign employees. Uber founder Travis Kalanick announced the creation of a special Fund of $3 million, which will help drivers to solve their migration issues. His competitors from the Lyft company promised to give $1 million to the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU): these funds will go to court battles with the Trump administration.

The companies' resentment is not accidental. America has long been a country of migrants, and every third working resident of Silicon Valley was born outside the country. Among those who work in computer specialties, already two-thirds are foreign born. The head of a technology company, even if he is an aboriginal, is accustomed to working with foreigners.

Immigrants not only take jobs but also create them. Every fourth business if not created in America is started by an immigrant, although the share of immigrants in the total population is two times lower. Among companies in the "Fortune 500," more than 40 percent were founded by immigrants in the first or second generation.

LinkedIn creator and billionaire Reid Hoffman for many years has been fighting for the liberalization of immigration laws. Three years ago, he wrote a column in the Washington Post, the so-called manifesto of this outlook on life:

"Immigration is pure entrepreneurship. You leave behind everything familiar to start somewhere new. To succeed, you need to develop alliances. You must acquire skills. You will have to improvise on occasion... Immigration is also fundamental to the U.S. national identity... Because of our reputation as the country most receptive to ambitious upstarts willing to risk everything for a better life, we have attracted the world’s hardest-working, most innovative dreamers, he said.

In addition, employers are unhappy with the additional costs. Inviting a legal workforce, the company is obliged to pay them for transport, food, and accommodation. It is not surprising that many companies resort to the work of illegal immigrants — if there was no demand for their services in the US, illegal migration would decline naturally.

The influx of foreign workers can irritate those Americans who suffer from unemployment. For example, at the beginning of 2014, its level, according to the US Bureau of labor statistics, reached 6.7%. However, in subsequent years, employment in the country began to decrease — at the end of 2017, the unemployment rate was 5.3%.

"Of course, the existence of about 12 million illegal immigrants in society creates problems — first of all, it pulls down wages, because these people work for salaries that are only slightly higher than the minimum rate, not to mention the non payment of taxes," the expert said. "Mexicans work not only in agriculture but also in a number of other areas — services, trade, etc., and this situation is very profitable for business."

This idea was supported by Trump, who said that low-skilled migrants, firstly, reduce the income of the poorest Americans, secondly, they parasitize on the social security system in the country, and thirdly, although this is not quite an economic problem, they work in the country without permission and because of this are violators and unwanted people. With each of these problems, Trump noted, he struggles in his own way.

The economy may need migrants, but their inflow should be regulated by the state, so that it benefits not only individual businessmen, but also the whole society, the expert explained.

The United States against Trump

If there is little doubt that the President is seriously going to fulfill his election promises, then there is no answer to the question of whether he will have enough power to fulfill them.

No serious reform of migration legislation is possible without the approval of Congress, which, apparently, will not vote for such radical measures. For example, the President cannot cancel the visa H1-B or cease to give it. But he can make it difficult to get it (by canceling some of Obama's edicts) and can choose to not let its owners into the country. Border control belongs to Trump, and he cannot let any person into the country without explaining the reasons. It is already clear that residents of Syria or Yemen will not be able to get into the United States, regardless of the visa type.

The edict on the great Mexican wall also has no real force until Congress approves the construction budget. In these occasions, Trump has to trust on the power vertical. The Attorney General, who remained from the Obama administration, sabotaged Trump's order and had to be fired; a full-fledged new prosecutor would have to be appointed through the Senate. Mayors of cities that are not subordinate to the White House, but depend on it, didn't want to make a deal and seek out illegal immigrants. State prosecutors have challenged the presidential edict in the courts. Trump voters may affect the Federal center but don't have the power to change the mood of large city residents who supported Hillary Clinton.

U.S. citizens also oppose Trump’s policies as they can. Immigration advocates come to airports in their free time and help foreigners who are not allowed into the country.

Businessmen write appeals and create working groups. People go to rallies. The war against immigrants began with an absurd ban, and it will cost Donald Trump dearly. Now it is hard to believe that he simply wants to civilize the current migration legislation and not just close the borders entirely. The President’s negative rating exceeded 50% in the first ten days of his administration — it is a postwar record.

It is very difficult to convince a country with at least 30 million immigrants (including, by the way, 30% of NBA players) that it needs to close its borders. And this is not quite an economic issue.

The debate about the comparative advantages and disadvantages of migration is taking place all over the world, but in America, such a debate is particularly important and instructive. And not just for the locals. First of all, because the United States is the most successful immigrant project in world history. This country was built by immigrants. All six Americans who received the Nobel Prize in 2016 were born abroad.

Of the five most expensive national companies, one was created by the son of a Syrian migrant (Steve Jobs had little reason to thank his biological father, but still, if he didn't get that visa that time, Apple would not have been born), one was founded by a refugee (Google), and another migrant — CEO (Satya Nadella from Microsoft). The newcomers are headed by McDonald's and PepsiCo, the newcomers created a Ford-model T and the atomic bomb. The creative talents of migrants are part of the great American myth. The main cultural event of America, collecting the sold-out musical "Hamilton" — a biography of an immigrant, a native of the Federation of St. Kitts and Nevis, who became a revolutionary hero and one of the Founding Fathers of the country (the face of Alexander Hamilton is shown on the ten-dollar bill).

If Trump is seriously going to try to finish what he started, he will have to win not only an economic dispute about the comparative advantages and disadvantages of migrants, but to convince citizens that the US is an ordinary country, the same as all the others, and not an immigrant startup.

Author: USA Really