Will Mankind Survive in the Next 12 Years?
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Will Mankind Survive in the Next 12 Years?


AUSTIN, TEXAS – January 21, 2019

In the next 12 years, humanity may face serious threats that overshadow even world terrorism. Will the number of migrants reach half a billion? Will Israel disappear from the world map? What should Trump do to avoid going to jail? USA Really will have a series of articles devoted to these topics.

Part 1.

“A significant amount of earth’s surface will become uninhabitable”

2019 is met with anxious expectation, much like how our ancestors expected the apocalypse. The internet is filled with predictions. We are facing a system-wide civilization crisis today, which will become more pronounced in the next 10-15 years. In 2018, it was not so much the sharp aggravation of contradictions between the biosphere and humanity (it has been increasing, especially in the last 20-25 years), but the sudden appearance of alarming, shocking data on the dramatic consequences of these contradictions. This used to all be classified, stamped with “top secret.” But now it is being openly discussed, likely due to growing hopelessness.

One example: In September there were partial leaks of monitoring results based on a rather complex mathematical model devoted to the classical problem of industrial civilization - the dynamics of hydrocarbon emissions into the atmosphere. One of the apocalyptic results of this model (This is a mathematical, huge and very complex model that uses a huge number of indicators) was a clear conclusion: If you do not urgently take any emergency measures, then after 12 years, climate change will begin to deteriorate exponentially.

12 years from now--that’s practically tomorrow. What will happen? An increasingly significant amount of earth’s surface will become uninhabitable. And this means that the habitable world, which has continuously expanded since ancient times, for the first time in history will begin to decrease continuously and incrementally. The same kind of data leaked on the problems of the oceans, which, since 2011, have actually lost their ability to self-clean. This also includes the growing shortage of freshwater and many other problems.

In short, all these changes are inevitable, unless some global emergency measures are taken. But such measures will not be taken. It’s practically impossible in today's socio-political reality, because the old mechanisms of political decision-making - in the form of the UN and other international specialized organizations - are degrading and crumbling before our eyes, simultaneously with the gradual destruction of a sense of shared responsibility, a sense of a united international community and the common destiny of mankind. It is unlikely that any serious agreed decisions, let alone coordinated actions, will be taken and implemented. The first reason is that there is a political trend: “everyone is for himself, one God is for everyone”, and the second, more significant reason is that the people who make the decisions simply do not know what to do.

Global economic crisis

Another important point: 2018 passed in anticipation of the final stage of the global economic crisis. The first stage of this crisis began in 2007–2008, but it was quickly dealt with through “quantitative easing”, that is, by “pumping cash”, which, in turn, led to a deepening of the long-term consequences in the global economy. Then the second stage was in 2014–2015. It was not noticed against a background of all sorts of political incidents: the fight against terrorism, the annexation of Crimea, and so on. However, since 2017, there is a tense expectation of when the final phase of this global crisis will begin. Most specialists using verifiable complex macro models assume that this will not be the usual traditional cyclical crisis of capitalism, but something else, more interesting, quite comparable to the crisis of 1929 (the so-called Great Depression), or worse.

In the last weeks of December, the volatility of the US stock indices was very sharp. During the month, the indicators fell four times by 4-5% (the Dow Jones index fell several times from a peak of 26,828 points recorded on October 3, and by December 21 it fell by 14% to 22,445 points; on December 24 it lost another 2.9%; the S & P500 index fell by 2.7%, the NASDAQ by 2.2%; analysts believe that last December was the worst month for the US stock market since 1931).

However, besides volatility, there are plenty of other indicators that indicate that something threatening is approaching. But what will it be? Everyone says that this will result in a crisis in 2019. Will it be able to solve the accumulated problems in some miraculous way, or will it simply aggravate them? But this can lead to completely unpredictable consequences. Everyone understands that the world will change radically, but no one knows how it will change. It’s hard to find optimism anywhere, but what drug and alcohol addictions growing. But socio-cultural optimism was typical of the global agenda even 25 years ago, in the 1990s, and even back in 2005, when we hoped that “we will defeat world terrorism - and everything will be fine”. But now this optimism has disappeared everywhere!

After all, this will not be a classic economic crisis, but a phase of the system-wide crisis, as already mentioned. The fact is that the economic crisis itself is now becoming the expression of an extraordinary combination of social, technological, industrial, cultural and political problems and contradictions that are escalating throughout the world. First of all, this is due to the beginning of the transition to the sixth technological order, which will require fundamental transformations in all spheres of human life: both in economic and in political, social, and cultural. Is the result of this crisis sufficiently successful to produce or at least to launch such necessary transformations? The key problem is that there is no ideology, no strategy, no clear plan for such transformations, neither in the US, nor in China, nor in Europe, nor in Russia.

Here, for example, one of the trends of the approaching sixth technological order is more and more complex and intensive robotization, which gradually and objectively leads to the fact that people in the name of increasing productivity on the basis of new technological innovations will simply get rid of mechanical work. In other words, the huge increase in unemployment is an absolute fact of tomorrow. This will certainly be accompanied by social consequences: the growth of alcoholism, drug addiction, extreme divorce rates, deformation of family relations, the spread of criminal behavior and so on. Actually, this is already happening. Look around and see with your own eyes.  And now look at the actions of politicians and corporations that are actively pursuing a policy of accelerated robotization in accordance with the aphorism "Today is bad, but it's good because tomorrow will be worse!"

Some special intellectual breakthrough, a super-idea is needed to overcome these contradictions. The same unemployment could become a major problem even in developed countries in the next 10-15 years. What to do with it in the framework of the continuing capitalist system of mass consumption and mass production? Elites, parties, special services, do not know that.

Already-mentioned social problems are connected with this. Why was the migrant issue so acute in the media last year? Here, oddly enough, the relationship between the biosphere and man was also affected. One of the reasons for the wars in the Middle East, particularly in Syria and Iraq, have been long droughts in the last 20 years in these countries. Natural disasters have led to a massive migration of the rural population to the cities, and from overcrowded cities to other countries, including a climatically prosperous Europe. These trends (on the one hand, catastrophic climate changes, and on the other - the increasingly uncontrollable challenges of the sixth technological order) lead to the fact that in the next 15–20 years the number of migrants could reach almost half a billion people (the minimum estimate). This is a very real problem, because ordinary people, when faced with representatives of a different anthropological type, have an instinctive fear of them. However, many of them do not understand that in 20 years they themselves may turn out to be migrants and refugees, moreover, from coastal England or continental Europe.

It is clear that the combination of such systemic contradictions will inevitably stimulate the trend of nationalism, which is now intensifying throughout the world, especially in Europe. Much of what we now see in the EU (relations between the European Union and Britain because of Brexit; the situation associated with the critical weakening of Emmanuel Macron), one way or another rests on the problem of multifactorial nationalism. Therefore, many assumptions are being made about whether Europe is returning to the state of the 1920s – 1930s, which were the threshold of the Second World War. Against this background, in 2018 we witnessed a sharp weakening of globalism and the clash of the American Deep State and Trump. Relatively speaking, this is a direct, increasingly fierce clash of current American nationalism or patriotism (“America is above all”) with global tendencies.

The global political crisis, as an integral part of the system-wide crisis in 2018, was remarkable in the fact that it united, included whole layers of political crises, which were not seen 10 years ago. The contradictions inside the country have escalated. In the USA, a direct clash between various groups and elites, the fight against Trump is only one aspect. The “yellow vests” movement in France is not the spontaneous actions of the working people, as we are trying to imagine, but the alliance of the elites against Macron. The slogan “Macron is the Rothschild puppet” is a bright indicator of the modern stage of the intra-elite war. In Germany, the intra-elite struggle led to the resignation of Merkel from the post of chairman of the Christian Democratic Union and the fact that the main political party of the Federal Republic of Germany, which provided her with stability, the CDU, has now de facto split.

Here can be added a sharp aggravation of relations between the United States and Russia, and this heat has already gone beyond the bounds of reasonable and reached frightening scope. In addition, as the Marxists say, the antagonistic contradictions between the United States and China, as well as within the PRC itself, between Comrade Xi Jinping and his three opponents from the standing committee under the Politburo of the Chinese Communist party, has sharpened. And inside the US there is no peace. Already, a number of reputable American experts are speaking about the possible division of the US.

Two conclusions can be drawn:

First, frankly speaking, in 2018 we were faced with an amazing situation where virtually all the world's political, intellectual, business elites do not know how to act in the face of ever-growing threats coming from the future. To some extent, this reminds me of the end of the 20s - the beginning of the 30s of the 20th century. Now, however, everything is much worse.

Secondly, human civilization is entering the most dangerous period since 1945 - the most dangerous 12-year period, when a truly existential problem will be solved - whether humanity will survive or not. If we estimate the probability of the threat of global war from 1991 to 2010 as a unit, then, quite likely, in the period from 2019 to 2031, this figure will increase eight-fold.

Author: USA Really