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Essay on US Strategy

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AUSTIN, TEXAS – February 27, 2019

Based on the results of numerous responses to our articles on geo-strategy, we have decided to continue the cycle of articles on this topic. During the reading and compilation, it became clear that some topics and questions need to be expanded to make the picture more solid and structured. This article is an extension and addition to the previously written essay on US strategy and contains a description of all valid scenarios.

So this is part 1.

At the moment, the US, as a state represented by the national / industrial elites, faces a difficult choice. The inertial scenario leads not only to the loss of status of a superpower and a global hegemon, but also to the risk of losing its subjectivity as a single state. Consider the field of US strategies depending on world scenarios.

In the case of a practically closed scenario of preserving the global right-liberal world, the US has two strategies. The first one is called “The End of History,” since it is based on the idea of the economy going to a crisis-free level and continuing to build a global world in the coming decades. This strategy implies the preservation of an alliance with global financiers ("the owners of the money”), the direction of all resources to save the global financial system at the expense of the US economy, and, as a consequence, the gradual transition to the option that can be briefly described as "the End of the Empire." This option threatens the loss of world domination in 2025-2030 and the subsequent complete loss of subjectivity as a single state in a tougher scenario than the USSR in the ‘90s.

The second scenario - “Cosmocolonialism” - will be hidden until 2040–2050, when the prospect of space expansion and the creation of inhabited autonomous bases on satellites and planets of the solar system will open again. Although it should be noted that in recent years, the promotion of space romance has sharply increased, and ideas and projects have started to be pulled out from under the cloth. Thus, in the case of preserving the US’s subjectivity, this strategy will become relevant, not as a locomotive of progress, but as part of the natural development of the trans-industrial world.

US strategy field

In terms of catastrophic scenarios, the US’s strategy is clear and logical. It will be a repetition of the basic actions and steps of the 20th century. Again there will be a provocation of world wars in Eurasia, the revival of the Monroe doctrine, etc. A description of this strategy is no more interesting than rewriting a history textbook. Therefore, we will not dwell on this strategy in detail.

Essay on US Strategy

The most likely scenario for the world is the “Multi-Polar World, Pan-Regions” option; the US has two manifested strategies for this scenario. The first is the "Greatness of America" — forcing the transition to the sixth technological mode by breaking the existing post-industrial society and civil war. The second is the “Last Legion.” The essence of this strategy is the same, only there will be an attempt to make everything calmer, without kinking, losing the strategic pace in favor of minimizing current losses.

There is a third scenario — the construction of a left-liberal society, similar to what is possible in Latin America. But for the majority of ordinary people who adhere to right-conservative positions, this is unacceptable. And for the majority of post-industrial residents of big cities (starting with the “creative layer” and ending with the non-working slum population) this idea has not yet gained proper understanding, although support for Sanders’ ideas is constantly growing. So far this strategy has not shown relevance, but in the case of the failure of the above two, it will be used to try to return the US’s subjectivity.

"End of History" / "End of the Empire" Strategy

Let's start with an inertial scenario that would be implemented under US control by global financiers. This scenario does not need to be discounted, because despite the low probability, there is still a chance of regaining control of the White House from the right-wing globalists behind the Democratic Party.

The essence of this strategy is to save the global financial system, by all means, by any casualties, including at the expense of the population and industry of the United States.

Change in the subjectivity of US strategies

To be in the world elite the country / pan-region needs to be located in the topmost of the available techno-economic paradigm. The opening of the possibility of a phase transition and a transition to the new techno-economic paradigm of the first country / pan-region can be very different in time.

Recall that each of techno-economic paradigms is the dialectical negation of all previous ones, and not their natural continuation. Post-industrial society is not synonymous with modern, it is just a society living in the fifth techno-economic paradigm. In the last decades, the dominant country and structure have been located in the post-industrial world (the USA — the "the owners of the money"). This also applies to continental Europe, Britain, Japan (junior partners), and even less to Israel and Saudi Arabia (privileged vassals). These countries, mostly living in the fourth techno-economic paradigm and having a large scale and resources, acted as counter-elites (BRIC countries); all the rest belonged to the third world. The techno-economic paradigm does not determine the place and strength, it only shows the potential, because the struggle goes within the framework of the geopolitical triad (armed, commercial, economic and psychohistorical wars).

This picture is shown for non-catastrophic scenarios, when the top techno-economic paradigm will grow, not decrease, as it would have been in the world scenario of the Dark Ages.

When changing the top techno-economic paradigm to the sixth (someone from the countries / pan-regions will pass the phase barrier), the territories living in the fifth, post-industrial, techno-economic paradigm drop out of the world elite. The only problem with the US is that, being dominant and hegemonic, their internal system of relations is unbalanced; it needs a constant flow of resources from the outside world. The level of real incomes of the population corresponds to the second half of the 1950s, i.e. a drop to the equilibrium point will be up to 50% of the standard of living. For reference, after the collapse of the USSR, the fall was 30%.

If the policy of retention of post-industrial society is preserved, then all resources will go towards preserving the financial system. The population and the real sector can no longer service debts and make new ones, but it doesn’t matter. They could turn on the printing press and redistribute income and assets in favor of the financial sector, as it was more than once in the past. It is impossible to write off debts, as these are assets of investment banks and multinational companies. As a result, there is a bankruptcy of the population, eviction from houses, destruction of the real sector (industrial economy). This is what threatened the Trans-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic trade partnerships promoted by the Obama administration.

The US will not be able to move into the sixth techno-economic paradigm, since the influence of the fifth will be very strong; instead of dialectical denial, there will be an attempt to develop and strengthen the elements of the fifth techno-economic paradigm that they are trying to do now under the guise of informatization.

Well, in the end, when the first transition to the trans-industrial techno-economic paradigm takes place in the world, the post-industrial economy will collapse in the US — external flows will simply run out and the fourth techno-economic paradigm will be dismantled.

Essay on US Strategy

Thus, the periodization of this path will be as follows:

·        return of the "the owners of the money”’s control over the US in the coming years;

·        return of right-wing liberal policies, increased military tensions and conflicts;

·        beginning of the “Greatest Depression,” unrestrained emission to save the financial sector, the mass destruction of enterprises and the population;

·        collapse of the level of social life — hunger, tens of millions of unemployed, shooting demonstrations, martial law (all funds for the financial sector and feeding of minorities);

·        failure of all attempts to launch the sixth techno-economic paradigm — neither money nor the conditions for this;

·        in 2027-2030 the US will fall out of the global elite;

·        in 2030-2040 there will be the collapse of the standard of living and social and economic structure to the level of Latin America;

·        2045 — minimal restoration of subjectivity, at the level of modern India

The only way out would be to attempt around 2030 to follow the path of the left-wing globalists (described for the strategy of Latin America), to build a network of statehood. But it will not be America or the modern post-industrial world as we know now. It will be Ibero-America, consisting of two continents.

Author: USA Really