Essay on US Strategy. Part 3
AUSTIN, TEXAS – March 14, 2019
This is the final article in a series of essays on US strategy.
In the first parts, we considered a practically closed scenario of preserving the global right-liberal world, which has two strategies. The first one is called “The End of History,” since it implies the preservation of an alliance with global financiers ("the owners of the money”), the direction of all resources to save the global financial system at the expense of the US economy, and, as a consequence, the gradual transition to the option which can be briefly described as "the End of the Empire."
We also noted that the most likely scenario for the world is the “Multi-Polar World, Pan-Regions” option; for it, the US has two manifested strategies. The first is the "Greatness of America" -- forcing the transition to the sixth technological mode by breaking the existing post-industrial society and civil war. The second is the “Last Legion.”
Today we will consider the following possible scenario, which we call, "Greatness of America."
This strategy was disclosed in the first article on the US strategy. Its essence is for the forced dismantling of the post-industrial economy. In a confrontation with the “owners of the money,” the US industrial elites will unleash a civil war against the background of or following the results of the next presidential election in 2020.
As a result, great losses will occur, but the US will not fall below the position of a regional power; the status of a great power will be temporarily lost, but will be regained already around 2030-2035, being the first to enter into the sixth techno-economic paradigm.
A few years ago, the US industrial elites made a principled decision to launch the sixth techno-economic paradigm -- patent protection was removed from almost all technologies…
Foreign policy is also understandable and well described -- a mess in the center of Eurasia, namely in the Middle East with the partition of Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and, of course, the Monroe Doctrine, as the first echelon of defense.
Having regained control of the world or its part, the US will pass the next transition without any problems around 2055 and will feel more than good until 2090.
Based on the US policy of recent decades and Trump's personality, this particular scenario seems to me the most likely. Yes, there are risks, but the alternatives are even worse, and winning attracts.
The most likely world scenario is the disintegration of the world into pan-regions. It closes the simplest and most desirable for the US inertial scenario “The End of History,” turning it into “the End of the Empire.” But for a significant part of the population and elites, this is not an argument to abandon this path.
The key problem of the US is that the economy of the fifth techno-economic paradigm is controlled not by the internal elites of the country, but by the “owners of the money.” The “owners of the money” cannot agree with the industrial elites, redistributing assets and future bonuses. At the same time, the “owners of the money” (it so happens that the majority is now associated with the Democratic Party and the Fed) are not independent entities; it is useless to negotiate with them.
The main beneficiary of closing the door to the "End of the Empire" strategy, with the exception of the US itself, is Russia. And for the rest of the geopolitical players, this would be the desired result; they would be able to sit quietly on the sidelines, preparing and forgetting about a dangerous competitor for 20-30 years.
Here just the US industrial elites decided to save the country -- we applaud and commend them for this. There are two scenarios in front of them: “Greatness of America,” with a reboot with the help of the civil war starting in 2021, returning to the position of a great power as early as 2030–2035, simultaneously with the transition to the sixth techno-economic paradigm. The second scenario -- “The Last Legion” -- includes a more peaceful struggle, without kinking, losing the strategic pace in favor of minimizing current losses. But in this case, we will regain the status of a great power 7-10 years later, which can be critical, since competitors will outrun and take the lead.