22% of People in the World Will Be Obese by 2045
VIENNA, AUSTRIA — May 23, 2018
Obesity can raise the risk of up to 13 types of cancer in young adults.
A sedentary lifestyle is one of the main causes of the prevalence of obesity. New research from several cities in the world presented at the European Obesity Congress this year, held in Vienna, Austria, shows that if current trends continue, the prevalence of obesity worldwide will increase by 14% in 2017 to 22% in 2045. The prevalence of diabetes will rise from 9.1 to 11.7% during the same period, which will exert a massive pressure on health systems, which already spends large sums only to treat diabetes. The authors point out that the previous numbers are for the 'global' scenario. Individual countries show individual tendencies and must have their own objectives. For example, if current trends continue in the United States, obesity will increase from 39% in 2017 to 55% in 2045, and diabetes rates from 14 to 18%. And in the UK, current trends predict that obesity will rise from the current 32 to 48% by 2045.
The study, presented by Dr. Alan Moses, from Novo Nordisk Research and Development, in Soborg, Denmark, and Niels Lund, from Novo Nordisk Health Advocacy, in Bagsvaerd, Denmark, and colleagues from the Steno Diabetes Center, Gentofte, Denmark, and the University College of London, United Kingdom, also indicates that to avoid that the prevalence of type 2 diabetes exceeds 10% in 2045, the levels of global obesity should be reduced by 25%. Population data from all countries in the world were obtained from the collaboration of non-communicable disease risk factors (a database of the World Health Organization).
The authors' model suggests that, in order to stabilize the overall prevalence of diabetes at 10%, the prevalence of obesity should fall steadily and in total about a quarter, from the current level of 14% to just over 10% by 2045" These figures underscore the amazing challenge that the world will face in the future in terms of obese people, with type 2 diabetes, or both, in addition to the medical challenges these people will face, the health costs of the countries' systems will be enormous, "says Moses. He concludes: "Despite the challenge that all countries face with obesity and diabetes, the trend can change, but aggressive and coordinated measures will be necessary to reduce obesity, and individual cities should play a key role in the confrontation of the problems related to obesity, some of which are common to all and others are unique to each one of them."