Jim Rickards predicts Trump's victory and explains why the polls are always wrong
A week ago, Jim Rickards gave his opinion about the US election during his remote interview to Australian gold expert and investment author, Shae Russell, and spoke about why the polls are wrong.
Economist and investment banker with 35 years of experience working in Wall Street, Jim Rickards, reminisced on the prior elections in 2016 when the polls were all for Hillary Clinton and explained why they can be wrong this time too.
“But you had to know how kind of disaggregated or really reversed engineer the polls. The polls are badly flawed,” Rickards said.
“It doesn’t mean they are worthless, it does mean you have to understand how to interpret them correctly,” he added.
Then the author of “The Death Of Money” and “The Road To Ruin,” who predicts Trump’s victory in 2020 regardless that Joe Biden is five points ahead in 12 states in the polls, gave some examples of why the polls are actually wrong.
“In 2016 Hillary Clinton was ahead in the polls even with a greater amount but she lost. So what’s wrong with the polls?”
The first reason why the polls don’t show the real picture of votes in the country Rickards called that not everyone in the United States is a registered voter and described how all the categories of the voters are counted.
The second reason, according to Rickards, is the sample size.
“You need at least about 1300 people who answer your poll to have a margin of error even as high as three and a half percent,” Rickards continued.
The third thing was the most categorical as the editor of Strategic Intelligence mentioned that it’s important to get right whether they’re asking republicans or democrats.
“At the fair poll, you’d ask both to get the proportion about the same as the likely voters. So if there are slightly more democrats than republican in the likely voter category, it makes sense to ask slightly more democrats rather. That’s a fair sample. But they ask way more democrats.”
Then Rickards concluded that “they are doing it again, they’re doing the same thing they did in 2016.”
“So the polls favor Biden, that just a case, but you can’t rely on that because the polls are badly constructed.”
The next thing Rickards suggested was quite curious. He said that you need to ask a voter two questions. The first one is who he is going to vote for and the second one is who as he thinks will win. The answer to the second question almost always will be the opposite and more accurate. It happens because a person starts to think about other people and who they are going to vote for.
Watch the full interview below: