Main Threat to Donald Trump Is Assassination Attempt
HUSTON, TEXAS — August 3, 2018
As we wrote before the non-profit Forecast Foundation launched its Augur protocol on the Ethereum network in a bid to create a new blockchain-based betting platform.
“Anything is fair game,” the website states, “from the next presidential election to the success of a company’s product.”
Augur’s website describes several potential use cases for its platform, including political forecasting and weather prediction.
“Augur is built from the ground up to be owned and operated by the people that use it,” the platform’s website states. “This is a technical reality enabled by the ethereal blockchain and open source software.”
And now, so-called “assassination markets” have popped up on the platform. Users are now betting on when public figures will die or be killed. On the platform, users can make a prediction about the outcome of any event.
Rest assured that we don’t support this idea, quite the contrary, for us it is just interesting to calculate the likelihood. So, let's start.
We start with the fact that Trump is not the 45th but the 44th US President. In fact, there have been 44 US President since 1789. Grover Cleveland was counted twice as the 22nd (1885-1889) and 24th President (1893-1897), because he held this position in non-consecutive terms.
To convert odds to percentages to make a bet you have to rely on your intuition and personal ideas about US policy or on historical facts that MATHEMATICALLY indicate what the US President should fear more: death or impeachment. Of course, the past does not automatically determine the future, and yet, here are POSSIBLE threats to Donald Trump as US President:
- None of the 44 US Presidents resigned "by impeachment" - 0 % (threat of impeachment);
- Of the 44 US Presidents - 7 faced the threat of impeachment -15.91;
- Of the 44 US Presidents - 8 died in office -18,18 % (death threat);
- Of the 44 US Presidents – 11 faced assassination attempts (including four killed) – 25% (assassination threats).
So mathematically, the biggest threat to Trump is the assassination threat. Our method is still very far from being perfect and we advise you refrain from using it in making any bets based only on such calculations.